SHFE tin rises slightly in night session; spot market transactions may weaken [SMM tin morning news]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on June 26, 2025:

Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) rose slightly during the night session and maintained a high-level sideways trend, finally closing near 266,800 yuan/mt, up 1.8% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) Sun Xiaohong, Secretary General of the Automobile Internationalization Professional Committee of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products, stated that customs data showed that China's automobile exports reached 6.4 million units last year. With a projected growth rate of 10%, China's automobile exports are expected to reach 7 million units this year. If the growth rate of automobile exports remains above 10%, by 2030, China's automobile exports are expected to reach 10 million units. (Bullish ★) (2) Major overseas memory manufacturers are gradually reducing or even halting the production of DDR4 memory chips and redirecting resources to new products such as DDR5. Currently, the company is actively expanding its niche DRAM capacity and strengthening its client-side layout, aiming to capture more market share amid the withdrawal of major overseas manufacturers. (Bearish ★) (3) Data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association shows that Tesla's new car registrations in the EU last month were only 8,729 units. Including the markets of the UK, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland, its sales still fell by 28%, with total sales dropping to 13,863 units. (Bearish ★)

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: The overall supply of tin ore in major production areas such as Yunnan is tightening. Entering June, some smelters are considering production halts for maintenance or minor production cuts. (Bullish ★) (2) Demand-side: PV industry: After the installation rush, orders for PV tin strips in east China have declined, and the operating rates of some producers have dropped. Electronics industry: The electronics terminal market in south China has entered the off-season, coupled with high tin prices, resulting in a strong wait-and-see sentiment among terminals, with orders only meeting just-in-time procurement needs. Other sectors: Demand for tinplate, chemicals, etc., remains stable, with no unexpected growth observed.

Spot Market: Trading in the spot market has slightly picked up. A few downstream enterprises have made small purchases at low prices, while most downstream enterprises maintain just-in-time procurement. However, the traditional solder industry has entered the consumption off-season, with overall order conditions being weak. Most traders reported transactions of around 20 mt yesterday, with a few traders reporting transactions of around two truckloads.